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TOPIC: Third Quarter Release

Third Quarter Release 26 Oct 2016 16:01 #7830

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Live webcast of Q-3 results on Wednesday, November 9, 2016 at 5:30 ET - the dial-in number is 1-877-402-3914 and the conference ID is 9218454. Prior to the webcast, the Company will issue its Q-3 earnings release at 4:15 ET.

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Third Quarter Release 26 Oct 2016 18:26 #7833

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Not on election night ? Must be good news coming...LOLOLOL !
You did get some press releases this week RS....market yawned.

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Third Quarter Release 27 Oct 2016 04:54 #7838

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Hedgefund, maybe we are going to find out that CYTX also has a new President!!!:really: :grin: :nice:

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Third Quarter Release 03 Nov 2016 10:06 #7915

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Yes,
After losing the election Trump is going to blame it on his hairdresser and make a bid for Cytori in order to develop stem cell treatments for the emulsification of hair follicles that have metamorphosed into orange spears of protein encased in hairspray. After treatments he will look like Judge Andrew Nepolitano and bombard the airwaves with info-mercials touting the efficacy of Cytori stem cell therapy. So but up your shares now. The election is next week and the orange crush is in full display.

:joy: :joy:
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Third Quarter Release 03 Nov 2016 10:45 #7918

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Fatboy, did you not see Fas' post forbidding political discussion!:yep:

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Third Quarter Release 03 Nov 2016 13:34 #7923

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rodney.strongg wrote: Fatboy, did you not see Fas' post forbidding political discussion!:yep:


Rodney- I clarified the rules of the board somewhat.. see board menu.

The detail now reads-

We have respect for each other and behave accordingly. That is- criticism is allowed amongst brothers and sisters, but do not exceed boundaries of civilized behaviour. Topics of discussion, which can cause emotional stress, should be carefully avoided- these primarily can be summarized under the heading- Politics and Religion. I do realize Cytori and ADRC´s have some aspects in common with these topics, but will ignore that fact at this stage. Raccoons, trespassing those boundaries can of course be reprimanded by some sarcasm accompanied by intelligent verbiage, which could please and entertain the brothers and sisters.


The eloquent verbiage of Fatboy pleases me as the liberal-, but alas also despotic manager of this board.:grin:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Third Quarter Release 03 Nov 2016 15:11 #7926

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Been following Cytori since 2007, I traded in and out for many years and have always actively followed management and these message boards. Unfortunately I have been holding a (formerly) large position since early 2014, so my timing was impeccable lol.

The recent share price action has me coming out of the shadows to ask and evaluate, what market cap does Cytori truly deserve? Is $34 million a true fair market price for a company with a Phase 3 trial halfway to completion? Does Wall Street price such a high chance of insolvency that the trial data outcome next year doesn't matter? Or have they actually lost faith in the potential of ADRCs and believe that the trial results will disappoint yet again. Those are questions I have.

Instead of selling and taking an initial 50% loss two years ago I have continued to add to my position. That decision looks awfully stupid today, but I keep holding onto the hope that a more reasonable valuation will come and that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Maybe that light really is a train though, I don't know. :bash:

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Third Quarter Release 03 Nov 2016 16:05 #7929

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irrationalexuberance wrote: ,what market cap does Cytori truly deserve? Is $34 million a true fair market price for a company with a Phase 3 trial halfway to completion? :bash:


Welcome back...

I will give my two pennies worth sometime (in a few days) later, but hope some regulars will have done so before me until that time. :yep:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Third Quarter Release 04 Nov 2016 16:57 #7936

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Rodney,

I don't think my post was political. It was based on science. Pure and simple science. I have no dog in the political fight. I am just an unbiased observer. And I have had a lot to observe the last few months. Wow to be an American in these times. The choice between an orange alien from neverland, or the matriarch of deceipt? You pick em. I just have to sit back and laugh.

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Third Quarter Release 05 Nov 2016 16:44 #7944

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The spreadsheet that I posted and Fas reposted calls for a product revenue estimate of $957,500 for the 3rd quarter of 2016. This is simply a 25% growth rate over last year's 3rd quarter. Given the two approvals to treat OA in Japan in late June, I am increasing my estimate by $140,000 to $1,097,500. There is no way to predict BARDA revenue so that remains flat at $1,700,000 for the quarter. My total revenue estimate is now $2,797,500.

Note that Maxim has an estimate of $3,900,000 for the 3rd quarter and will result in an earnings miss being published on the street. This could help explain the sell-off in the stock lately although the sell-off seems to be hitting the whole group including Athersys.

Tiago will provide an updated estimate for the year on Wednesday. Previously, his estimate was between $12 million and $14 million for TOTAL Revenues. The $2 million swing is completely dependent on estimates made about IDIS revenue in the 4th quarter and any potential revenue from Lorem Vascular above zero. Since there has been no press release on treating the first patient in the IDIS program, it is safe to say at this point in time that my 4th quarter estimate for total revenue of $5,661,000 and Maxim's estimate of $4,100,000 are both too high. A better estimate is $3,459,500 for the 4th quarter which would put the full year at the low end of Tiago's estimate.

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Third Quarter Release 05 Nov 2016 18:39 #7945

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Fatboy, it is not anything to laugh about!

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Third Quarter Release 05 Nov 2016 18:42 #7946

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DOV, you are most likely right for Q-3, but in the long run it doesn't matter if they get to breakeven by 2018!

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Third Quarter Release 05 Nov 2016 19:44 #7947

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DOV
Real trouble started at Q3 end...something revenue related a easy bet.
Yahoo has avg. analyst at $2.85 million, so you are a smidge below that.
IDIS running a bit slower ? I certainly wouldn't be surprised but hopefully we get official guidance.

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Third Quarter Release 06 Nov 2016 08:28 #7948

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RS,

Clarification needed here - Tiago uses "break-even by the end of 2018" and Hedrick says "break-even by 2018." The clarified projection is the end of 2018. In other words, the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2018 should reach break-even.

Another clarification - Tiago and Marc talk about a mid to late 2018 FDA approval to treat scleroderma opening up a $billion market. This is $1 billion/year market not spread out over 25 years. That is a statement of the TAM (total available market) not the projected revenues in any year. To date, there is no competition for Scleroderma cell therapy whereas a drug like Advil has a huge TAM, but a much lower market share. I know I am stating the obvious, at least I hope I am!

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Third Quarter Release 06 Nov 2016 09:11 #7949

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On August 4, 2016, the press release stated: “Our current projections indicate that the net proceeds from our Q2 financing activities coupled with ongoing downward pressure on expenses coupled with revenue growth, will provide liquidity for at least the next 12 months of operations.”

The words "will provide liquidity" technically means (we will not break loan covenants until after August 4, 2017 at least)

Several of us have done the math and concluded Cytori will break the loan covenant of maintaining a minimum of $5 million in cash in March of 2017. The only possible way to reconcile this difference is to plug in higher revenues or to add in up-front cash from a partnership. My solution to this reconciliation was to plug-in $1,800,000 in IDIS revenue for the 4th quarter (36 patients x $50,000 ea) and to continue the revenue growth in each quarter of 2017. No partnership was anticipated.

I expect an answer to this mathematical discrepancy on Wednesday.

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Third Quarter Release 07 Nov 2016 11:03 #7956

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DOV - thank you for your continued insights and valuable info that you provide. Couple of clarifying questions:

Do you know what gross margins that Cytori expects to recognize on an individual Scleroderma procedure, once it is up and running? Apologies if this information has been provided previously, I just can't recall the exact projection.

Also assuming the $1 billion Scleroderma market that potentially exists, what percentage of penetration do you feel that the company could reasonably target?

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Third Quarter Release 07 Nov 2016 11:27 #7957

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Let's hope that your ID becomes how investors someday describe the future SP of CYTX - let's hope it's sooner rather than later. GLTY!

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Third Quarter Release 07 Nov 2016 15:57 #7959

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I think based on the past performance, it is safe to say the contract revenue is about $1.7 million and the sales revenue, about $ 1 million. The overall expenses may shrink, as the OA and the scleroderma patients enrollments are complete (on cytori's own expenses in the US), while the pending BARDA thermal and radiation phase I-II trial will be initiated using government monies and cytori is not planning new company sponsored clinical studies, presently. The cash burn for the 3rd and 4th Qs should decrease, hopefully, to the $ 4.5 (minus) million range, instead of the $ 5 (plus) million range. The cash burn rate may go down further next year.

Jeremy Haydn has a very important role in the company: he can license out most phase 2-3 clinical studies in new indications, based on results coming from investigators pilot trials. CYTX would receive the licensing fees and an increase in the sales of its products (machines and reagents).
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Third Quarter Release 07 Nov 2016 19:34 #7961

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On numerous occasions, Cytori has stated they expect to get $50,000 for each patient treated. This number comes from consultants in the drug pricing field. In the case of IDIS, they will get $1,000 per patient as a fee. (I would pay them $5,000 if they could find a patient to treat). IF, and I mean IF, this figure holds up and total expenses are approximately $2,500, that would be a gross margin of 95%.

For OA treatments in Japan, I have heard Cytori will get $3,500 per patient with a cost of goods at $1,250 for a 78% gross margin.

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Third Quarter Release 08 Nov 2016 08:18 #7963

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Dov, how do you envision the current impasse with Lorem Vascular gets resolved?:bang: or :nice:

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