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TOPIC: So, what are the odds?

So, what are the odds? 22 Jun 2015 05:20 #4718

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A line from a prior post of Lugano read:

I agree that the scleroderma and OA trials will decide on make or brake - based on current knowledge of the science the odds for a win are good...


So- my question to all of you invested and not invested, who read here... how do you see those odds?

My guess- around 95% favorable odds to succeed... :winky:

Only danger I see that if China and Japan generate no revenue in the next 12-18 months and the FDA stalls with granting approval for scleroderma, it might get to be scary again... :whistle:

My guess is that when Cytori starts to produce meaningful revenue, the BIG BOYZ will come with the argumentation- if you cannot beat them, join them. :cool:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

So, what are the odds? 22 Jun 2015 08:20 #4719

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Hi Fas

Sorry if my message in the other thread might have been not clear. The reply from Tiago was only the part in the quotation marks - the last line was my personal opinion.

Though, agree with your remarks!

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So, what are the odds? 22 Jun 2015 08:30 #4720

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Thanks - that was easy to fix. :whistle:

I was already wondering, why I agreed to a statement from Girao. You normally do not get anything like that i.e. something that smells of a subjective opinion. :yep:

Girao is doing good work in staying neutral and just doing his job. Thats the way it should be for a CFO. :yep:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

So, what are the odds? 22 Jun 2015 10:11 #4721

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So- my question to all of you invested and not invested, who read here... how do you see those odds?


Fas,

I think that we have a better chance on scleroderma. OA would be fantastic but there is so much money there that I think the results will be picked at by the scientific community for months after any results are published. OA results will have to be overwhelmingly positive to drive any short term progress for Cytori. Best we can hope for is a partner to help move on to the next phase.

Scleroderma on the other hand has a better chance to be accepted since the community is smaller and the treatments are fewer. The key here is the ability to make the therapy cost effective, facilitating patient reimbursement by social/insurance agencies could make the treatment a standard of care for this debilitating affliction.

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So, what are the odds? 25 Jun 2015 05:02 #4727

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Thanks for responding Fatboy.

Yes- I see scleroderma also as the first application, which could generate meaningful revenues. And this primarily in the US, for which reason I also wrote that "stalling in respect of approval" and in addition stalling of medicare et al in reimbursing the therapy are risk factors beyond Cytori´s control.

Since OA is a pilot and not a pivotal of course, the regulatory timeframe is much longer. But...as Cytori has stated they are looking for a partner to develop this in the US. When the pilot is OK, it definitely will mean a chance for Cytori to get meaningful dollars too in upfronts.

This will be the first time ever that data will be available which might impress Big Pharma. The 72 breasts from RESTORE II were not adding value to any health care system world wide, thereto had a lousy design and was a prime example of Cytori strategic and operational incompetency. :evil:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

So, what are the odds? 25 Jun 2015 09:39 #4730

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"

stalling in respect of approval" and in addition stalling of medicare et al in reimbursing the therapy are risk factors beyond Cytori´s control


Fas,

Totally agree. My glimmer of hope is that the limited size of the "scleroderma community" and the lack of viable alternative therapies will create a catalyst for adaptation of the Cytori solution. That is if the results of the trial show efficacy. Based on the french studies I am confident that positive outcomes are coming, but you never can be sure of outcomes in a limited trial population.

We certainly need some positive indications in order to move forward. Another round of dilution would be devastating. :bang:

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So, what are the odds? 25 Jun 2015 11:58 #4733

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Fas, Medicare doesnt kick in here until age 65 except under very special circumstances. Depending on speed of advancement many scleroderma patients could still be under traditional insurance when seeking treatment in the USA. If someone is poor enough to qualify, Medicaid is similar to Medicare and acts as a safety net.

Fatboy...agree a limited size of scleroderma market let alone what % we will capture. I believe worldwide about 100K with 50K here. I do NOT believe the 300K potential DOV has suggested possible. No one captures 100% of any market !!! So if we go with 100K....do we get 70% 80%, 90% ? This and the reimbursement rates will be the kickers !!!

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So, what are the odds? 25 Jun 2015 15:08 #4736

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We are grasping for straws here fatboy. We're in the bottom of the 9th 2 out trailing by 5 runs with Hendrik at the plate no body on base. The bright side looks like the manager has called for a pinch hitter. If you prefer a tennis analogy game,set and 2 points away from match and we ain't winning. :bye:

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Lorem Vascular 25 Jun 2015 16:25 #4739

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Roth,

I am not giving up. This phoenix can still rise. The street is littered with stories of companies that were able to turn their fortunes around. But you are right "tis bleak". Lets hope there is some value left that can be salvaged and get some cash back to the shareholders!

PS: Your footwear site looks great. Good luck with it !! :happy:

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So, what are the odds? 25 Jun 2015 18:39 #4740

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Scleroderma has always been my favorite indication since the approval failure of the breast reconstruction trials (it works). It should be relatively easy to administer with a very quick response time as we have seen. The initial data from the French trial is very positive and the need for a treatment is pressing. The pressing nature of the indication is such that I believe that the FDA will acknowledge the need for approval subject to positive results as there is no alternative at present..

Certainly the FDA will be ambivalent about approving a treatment that any number of practitioners will attempt use to in other indications. However this can be controlled. Small time physicians will not have access to GMP facilities in a cost effective manner. Reimbursement will be critical but I cannot see how it can be refused in this indication. With reimbursement patients and doctors will be incentivised to go via the Celution route.

The mega prize will of course be the treatment of "severe" rheumatoid arthritis. The similarities in the two indications will act as a catalyst for trials in RA which should be straight into stage three. Once the market starts to see the potential of Celution and ADRC the share price should start to rally.

The issue is how much dilution will take place before this happens. As shareholders we need the support of BARDA to complete the new Celution device ASAP. We also need some non-dilutive finance. CIRM must/should be pressed for funding. They could easily earn some real brownie points riding on CYTX coattails.

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So, what are the odds? 25 Jun 2015 22:23 #4741

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CRIM, UHGGGGG !!!!!!! We have beaten and beaten this horse and still it wont die ! :bash:

Otherwise I agree the current plan and second close with all the millions of warrants still wont be enough funding.

If the Lodge wants radical though...why dont we basically give away cardiac for a small fee to a partner in exchange for them paying for development and we keep a decent percentage. LOL, they still probably wouldnt get any takers....LOL ! :KO: Otherwise who knows how long it will take Cytori to bring this to market as the patent clock ticks away.

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So, what are the odds? 27 Jun 2015 07:09 #4743

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CIRM, UHGGGGG !!!!!!! We have beaten and beaten this horse and still it wont die !


Hedge- What we do or do not do, is pretty irrelevant I guess. Its what Cytori does. Obviously scleroderma is no option to finance for CIRM since they always want a relatively big chunk of the pie and Cytori can surely all handle that themselves, no sweat. But with the new policies of Randall Mills, at CIRM, anything is possible.

If a partner does not bite for pivotal OA, CIRM should be an option, as would roughly 100 plus more applications be, as far as I am concerned...... At least there are over 60 auto immune disorders which I believe would be better served with ADRCs compared to most antibodies and poisonous small molecule compounds with heaps of dangerous side effects... :bang: :evil:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:
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