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TOPIC: The Corona Virus spread

The Corona Virus spread 12 Feb 2020 06:10 #13471

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Things seem to be getting more critical it seems- I looked yesterday and today- and there was a 13% increases in diagnosed cases and a 40% increase in deaths. The WHO expects the spread of the virus to peak in 10 to 14 days, the Formel 1 race on April 19 in China cancelled and no news from BP.

We will see how this all pans out.

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The Corona Virus spread 12 Feb 2020 14:18 #13472

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Much depends on back to work in China....heard of one company reopening and they found someone who tested positive there so now all of the 200+ employees are under quarantine.
Also heard of the first case in London....but spread in the West continues to be slow so far.

Markets don't seem to care...its up up up !

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The Corona Virus spread 12 Feb 2020 20:30 #13473

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Wow !
Cases jump by a 1/3 tonight to over 60K.
Reported deaths at 1,367

1.Question is does this represent a catch-up on the numbers that China was slow to report ?
2.They finally have enough test kits for better reporting ?
3.A new acceleration ?

With the "controlled" information we have it can be hard to judge but I currently lean towards numbers #1 or #2 or a combo there of. Lets hope its not #3.

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The Corona Virus spread 13 Feb 2020 04:27 #13474

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Yes- the spike is substantial- I still do not know exactly what I have to think of this, but am now starting to face the potential fact that it could be pretty dramatic. Indicative could be the few foreign workers infected - for instance the 14 patients which are treated in Germany. They should on average not be too old and should have relatively stable immune systems.

Time will tell.

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

The Corona Virus spread 13 Feb 2020 05:42 #13475

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My current understanding in regards to this dramatic jump is China has decided to fully count all those who test positive.
A few days ago Chin said they were no longer going to count those who test positive for the virus but had no symptoms. This was against WHO protocol or at least recommendation. They have reversed this decision and now will report ALL who test positive regardless of symptoms. The big jump therefore reflects the catch-up for the days asymptomatic patients were excluded.

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The Corona Virus spread 13 Feb 2020 11:26 #13476

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The only way this can be contained in the next 6 months, IMHO, is if warmer weather stops similar to how the end of winter ends the flu season. The 14 day incubation period while still contagious is too big of an issue. Here is the latest example: www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-japan-ship/japan-coronavirus-ship-ordeal-to-end-earlier-as-tokyo-taxi-driver-tests-positive-idUSKBN20708N

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The Corona Virus spread 13 Feb 2020 23:02 #13478

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The Corona Virus spread 18 Feb 2020 09:20 #13480

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Interesting question has arisen as to whether the origin of the coronavirus may be nefarious in nature??

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The Corona Virus spread 18 Feb 2020 12:06 #13482

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Speculation of original source has been going on for weeks now and weather this is a man made or natural strain.
Intriguing points on both sides of the conversation but it will be some time if ever we here the truth.
At least China is letting in experts now....so hopefully a broader scope of perspectives will better help those infected.

I also thought the fact that China is now destroying cash in infected areas points to the virulence of this strain.

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The Corona Virus spread 18 Feb 2020 12:43 #13483

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Fact is that the source has not been found from any animal, so the likelihood of another source, with Mercola´s hint in mind, appears more realistic.

That again would mean, that some data would be available (unless politically blocked) and some big savior from the BP world comes up and makes some gigantic money in the next months.

By the way- the German expats from China who were in isolation for two weeks all are back home again and the topic is less hot in the media now.

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

The Corona Virus spread 18 Feb 2020 15:27 #13484

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BP may find it harder than first thought.
At least from a timing aspect anyway.
www.wsj.com/articles/gileads-coronavirus-drug-trial-slowed-due-to-lack-of-eligible-recruits-11582003594

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The Corona Virus spread 23 Feb 2020 06:06 #13493

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South Korea over 600
Iran 43 with 8 dead
Italy over 100 with their most important industrial regions amounting to 30% of GDP effected
Cases in Japan still rising

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The Corona Virus spread 23 Feb 2020 11:01 #13494

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The spread to Italy obviously has me worried- it is only a 5 hours drive from where I live, which I took many times in my active days which always was a highlight when one passed Luzern seeing the majestic Alp-mountains. My wife and I decided to bunker a bit- just as a pre-caution tomorrow.

CNN had a decent artcle on the situation: . edition.cnn.com/2020/02/23/europe/italy-novel-coronavirus-spike-intl/index.html

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

The Corona Virus spread 23 Feb 2020 19:53 #13496

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Agree, 5 hours in todays world isn't far.
Especially since they don't even know who patient zero is in Italy.
The rise there and South Korea has been quite fast and makes me wonder where else in the world it is and just not being recognized.
Saturday China officially admitted the Wuhan market wasn't the original infection source...of course the rest of the world already knew that so not exactly a glasnost moment from them.
www.globaltimes.cn/content/1180429.shtml
In the real world reports of under reporting continue with one doctor taking to twitter to say he had 50 new cases in his facility and only one was officially reported by the government.
US futures down between 1.21% and 1.66% depending on the index. Tomorrow should be interesting.

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The Corona Virus spread 25 Feb 2020 08:02 #13498

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>>>French Minister of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire, told CNBC's Dan Murphy on Sunday at the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meetings in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, that the Covid-19 outbreak will have a material impact on the French economy and the world.
The country's finance minister warned France's tourism sector has plunged following the outbreak of the virus last month. "We have fewer tourists, of course, in France, about 30%, 40% less than expected," Maire said.
"That's, of course, an important impact for the French economy," he said. Tourism represents 10% of GDP in the country and supports upwards of 3 million jobs.
Maire said France welcomed 2.7 million Chinese tourists last year, "It won't be the same, of course, in 2020," he said, referring to the more than 200,000 flight cancellations since the virus broke out in China last month. <<<

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The Corona Virus spread 25 Feb 2020 10:08 #13500

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And the worst is still to come....by far.

But it will no effect Facebook, Google and all internet based businesses all that much I presume- :grin: except when advertisers withdraw their business

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

The Corona Virus spread 25 Feb 2020 11:12 #13501

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I agree on the internet businesses comment other than the market acceptance of high multiples may get reduced thus still impacting their PPS's.
As WST commented a few weeks ago....will Spring and warmer weather be a limiting factor in the spread or does the natural increased movement of people keep this strain going ? All eyes on those Chinese factory workers now.

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The Corona Virus spread 25 Feb 2020 13:27 #13502

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As WST commented a few weeks ago....will Spring and warmer weather be a limiting factor in the spread or does the natural increased movement of people keep this strain going ?


Yeah- this intriguing comment took me away from my brick-building. (!) Wow.

The way I understand it, viruses are all across the globe- all year round at -say tropical places. But people travel nowadays intensively - I remember I brought a very special one back from my Indian business trips, way back when (gastro related- and rather easy to identify) - so if the wave of common influenza always tend to start at the end of the winter i.e. early spring in colder regions- be it on the northern- or southern part of the globe, isnt it logical that the reason could be that folks are more susceptible to those viruses i.e. their immune system "guards" are way down compared to say- the end of the summer?
To me- the only explanation to that could the be lack of the sunshine vitamin (D3) which obviously is pretty much down at the end of a winter in most places. :whistle:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

The Corona Virus spread 26 Feb 2020 10:04 #13503

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It looks like, at this point, that the natural increased movement of people is "winning"- the virus is already north - and south of me at roughly a distance of 100 miles. Yesterday was the end of carnival and one infected person was among the crowds in Düsseldorf. I do not like the developments at all and it looks like it will be like I kind of predicted. Its gonna be a lot worse and will have a strong impact in economic development- everywhere.

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

The Corona Virus spread 26 Feb 2020 11:51 #13504

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Sadly, based on the reporting we are aware of, the death rate has climbed to 3.4%
Brazil the newest country I am aware of. Just one case so far.
I am sure its no comfort to be sandwiched Fas
I was just catching CNBC as I ate a quick lunch and was amazed at some of the attitudes...yes this will pass...but some just wanted to write it off as nothing...one there is a human aspect and two factories wont be back at 100% on a dime. So far markets moving around in the green area as they tackle where to price things and the bounce here seemed like the place to do it....general resistance in the past now support. In DOW terms we may fall back into the old range of lower 24K to lower 27K. News flow is what will matter.

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