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TOPIC: Some deliberations about PSTV

Some deliberations about PSTV 12 Jan 2020 13:44 #13398

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The following is surely partially a repeat of what I have written about Plus before, but we have progressed in time and the question becomes slowly but surely, "really- did Hedrick extend the life of Cytori only to collect 12-18 months more of his excessive salary or maybe he is worth that salary?".

Like I have also written before- this is not the industry I care for and I do not intend to invest anymore in it- ever. But, but, it seems to be clear, that a plan is being executed from the moment Azaya was acquired back in early 2018, with a due diligence lead time of at least 6 to 12 months, to accomplish just what has been accomplished so far in early 2020.

Believe you me- especially the "merging" of the left-overs of Cytori - roughly 800K shares with the fresh majority of 3 Mio plus shares from the secondary and it´s related US GAAP intricacies (warrant liability and Nasdaq rules) was a daunting task, which appears to have been successfully accomplished. In hindsight - the Oxford "conditions" in various 8K´s of the past, kind of predicted what was to come and now we are about 5 months away (I think) of what will be.

The mouthful that Hedrick voiced in the Shareholders letter, probably has been "planned" relatively soon- 1 or 2 months, assuming the plan is executed until the end. But, like I said, I will not bet on it.

In the Q3 report there was a mention of a legal case with TAP advisers (NY) for 3.7 Mio. Maybe has relevance? Do not know- as always.

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Some deliberations about PSTV 12 Jan 2020 18:04 #13399

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fas wrote: The following is surely partially a repeat of what I have written about Plus before, but we have progressed in time and the question becomes slowly but surely, "really- did Hedrick extend the life of Cytori only to collect 12-18 months more of his excessive salary or maybe he is worth that salary?".

Like I have also written before- this is not the industry I care for and I do not intend to invest anymore in it- ever. But, but, it seems to be clear, that a plan is being executed from the moment Azaya was acquired back in early 2018, with a due diligence lead time of at least 6 to 12 months, to accomplish just what has been accomplished so far in early 2020.

Believe you me- especially the "merging" of the left-overs of Cytori - roughly 800K shares with the fresh majority of 3 Mio plus shares from the secondary and it´s related US GAAP intricacies (warrant liability and Nasdaq rules) was a daunting task, which appears to have been successfully accomplished. In hindsight - the Oxford "conditions" in various 8K´s of the past, kind of predicted what was to come and now we are about 5 months away (I think) of what will be.

The mouthful that Hedrick voiced in the Shareholders letter, probably has been "planned" relatively soon- 1 or 2 months, assuming the plan is executed until the end. But, like I said, I will not bet on it.

In the Q3 report there was a mention of a legal case with TAP advisers (NY) for 3.7 Mio. Maybe has relevance? Do not know- as always.

/

Fas, not sure what point you are trying to make??

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Some deliberations about PSTV 13 Jan 2020 03:36 #13400

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The point I am making here Rodney, is that I am rather impressed with the conversion by Hawkins and Hedrick of a cell therapy company into a nanotech based oncology company. Deal making takes time- often longer than a year and for a tiny, tiny Nasdaq Company there are also those Nasdaq rules to navigate through. If- and that is a big if- if they are successful the next 5 months or so, I will not be surprised, although I will not have a part there in to play.
All in all in those 3 years of conversion they made about 4-5 complicated deals- with some more to come I guess.

I just look forward to observe the developments with interest and for folks with too much money, it might be a rewarding gamble.

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Some deliberations about PSTV 13 Jan 2020 04:43 #13402

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fas wrote: The point I am making here Rodney, is that I am rather impressed with the conversion by Hawkins and Hedrick of a cell therapy company into a nanotech based oncology company. Deal making takes time- often longer than a year and for a tiny, tiny Nasdaq Company there are also those Nasdaq rules to navigate through. If- and that is a big if- if they are successful the next 5 months or so, I will not be surprised, although I will not have a part there in to play.
All in all in those 3 years of conversion they made about 4-5 complicated deals- with some more to come I guess.

I just look forward to observe the developments with interest and for folks with too much money, it might be a rewarding gamble.

/

I posted recently that I thought PSTV may warrant a minor investment at their currently low SP - I haven't pulled that trigger, but your postings are leading me to do so.

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Some deliberations about PSTV 13 Jan 2020 06:00 #13403

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rodney.strongg wrote:
I posted recently that I thought PSTV may warrant a minor investment at their currently low SP - I haven't pulled that trigger, but your postings are leading me to do so.


LOL- do not forget to read the disclaimer section Rodney :grin: But at least we would have someone here with more than just academic interest. Thats good.

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Some deliberations about PSTV 13 Jan 2020 11:31 #13404

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fas wrote:

rodney.strongg wrote:
I posted recently that I thought PSTV may warrant a minor investment at their currently low SP - I haven't pulled that trigger, but your postings are leading me to do so.


LOL- do not forget to read the disclaimer section Rodney :grin: But at least we would have someone here with more than just academic interest. Thats good.


Fas, you may want to take a look at ATHX - finally getting some positive action today - definitely at this point, still way under-priced for its potential - ultimately over the next two years, could be looking at over $100 or zero.

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Some deliberations about PSTV 13 Jan 2020 12:16 #13405

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Rodney- I have in the past looked enough at ATHX and have not changed my opinion. WST knows what those opinions are and I am investing only where I believe in . And presently I do not know any ticker I would want to invest in. Might change though.

Just for what its worth- I visited the MSB site a few weeks back - the last patient in the CHF trial had his last visit in December and P3 results are expected to be announced in a half year or so. MESO probably will move in anticipation, but as always- you need to be a dare-devil to be invested when the news arrives :grin: :grin:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Some deliberations about PSTV 13 Jan 2020 18:25 #13406

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Fas,
I'm curious. What Is it about ATHX that you don't believe in? You should also take a look at RCEL, this is one stock that I think anyone can believe in. It's a question of valuation versus future revenues but the product works fantastically. Avita Medical Enters 2020 With Great Momentum seekingalpha.com/article/4316075?source=ansh $RCEL, $ATHX, $MESO, $PTE, $VCEL




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Some deliberations about PSTV 14 Jan 2020 05:12 #13407

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Ray-
Just like 3-4 years ago and at times before that, the reasons are still the same- I do not believe that allogeneic cells do not have an HLA response in the short- and long term. I still mainly base that on a pathology report from Texas Heart, way back from 2010/1 or so from a patient who died in the Phase 1 from MESO and showed strong inflammatory markers at the places, where he received the injections in the heart. From that period also date other papers I read, that warned for allogeneic treatment protocols. I never bothered to look much at the science ever since.

Anyway- additionally I am almost 10 years older now- and learned a lot of other things- not specifically related to AHTX or MESO. First, my personal experience (confirmed by conventional experts) that side effects from pills and other treatments- most often- tend not to show up immediately, but appear after a longer period of time or are simply nor recognized. I had several examples of that myself, which I will explain at some point in time. And second, with sponsored clinics, one has to very careful because investigators tend to turn a blind eye on possible negative effects. When the former chief editor from the New England Medical Journal claims that 50% of FDA checked, peer reviewed papers on sponsored clinical trials are faulty or tainted, the desire to invest in that stuff is virtually non-existent.

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Some deliberations about PSTV 14 Jan 2020 06:43 #13408

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WST....RCEL valuation has kept me from reentering the stock again, Of course we are in a market where valuation doesn't matter/ eg TSLA

Fas…. Something for consideration that may be a bit boring but has a yield is MPW. I was looking at these guys in the summer, $17ish I believe when they bought out a local hospital group. They have quite a few properties in Europe as well, They are basically a health care REIT. They buy up hospital properties and then rent them back to the companies that run the hospital. At the time it had a 5.5% yield. Since the PPS is $21+ and the yield sub 5% but if we get some corrective action in the markets this year I plan to take another look. While this approach seems more popular in Europe, its just starting in the US.

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Some deliberations about PSTV 14 Jan 2020 10:06 #13409

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myownhedgefund wrote: WST....RCEL valuation has kept me from reentering the stock again, Of course we are in a market where valuation doesn't matter/ eg TSLA

Fas…. Something for consideration that may be a bit boring but has a yield is MPW. I was looking at these guys in the summer, $17ish I believe when they bought out a local hospital group. They have quite a few properties in Europe as well, They are basically a health care REIT. They buy up hospital properties and then rent them back to the companies that run the hospital. At the time it had a 5.5% yield. Since the PPS is $21+ and the yield sub 5% but if we get some corrective action in the markets this year I plan to take another look. While this approach seems more popular in Europe, its just starting in the US.

/

HF, I forget what your problem is with ATHX - great ratio of risk to reward - imo, that ratio far outweighs the scientific nuance that Fas has with the stock - what say you?

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Some deliberations about PSTV 14 Jan 2020 12:34 #13410

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Nothing specific other than CYTX painful memories....ATHX just hasn't interested me.
I see updates here at times but otherwise its not even on my watch list at this time.

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Some deliberations about PSTV 14 Jan 2020 14:36 #13411

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myownhedgefund wrote: Nothing specific other than CYTX painful memories....ATHX just hasn't interested me.
I see updates here at times but otherwise its not even on my watch list at this time.

/

It appears that investment-wise, CYTX may have scarred you for life - LOL.

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Some deliberations about PSTV 15 Jan 2020 15:06 #13413

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Fas,

I think that after 3-4 years the evidence is clear that there is no significant, unmanageable immune response. Several hundred patients have undergone allogeneic cell therapies at Mesoblast, Athersys and Capricor and Tigenix to name a few. Not sure why you still feel this is an issue. Efficacy is what needs to be proven, IMHO, and we will see that in 2020 and 2021. As far as safety is concerned,I don't see it as a concern at all, IMO.

I do recall that we had discussions in the past on long term use of drugs, specifically statins.. At the time I was the one raising concerns. However, I don't have the same concerns with long term effect of allogeneic stem cells since they are cleared from the body within a few days and clinical evidence supports their safety. RCEL should be of interest for you if you are still investing. Autologous, efficacious and safe as can be with many potential markets. Only question is valuation... seekingalpha.com/article/4316075-avita-medical-enters-2020-great-momentum?v=1579112467&comments=show

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Some deliberations about PSTV 17 Jan 2020 07:28 #13414

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Ray- like I said I see that somewhat differently about the HLA response. Actually, since I traveled internationally in the early days of Precise, Apollo etc and know these guys a bit, so I continued to follow Emerson Perin with his MSB presentations. In 2014/5 or so, he gave a long presentation on the MSB Phase 2 in Chicago at the AHA Scientific Sessions, which included the HLA responses on the patients. Maybe you are right, maybe it is manageable short term- still it does not help either.

You are right - you were way before me with your concerns about certain medication- including statins. But mind you until end 2014 I was pretty much a dedicated follower of ESTABLISHED science. I have totally changed, which extremely benefited my own health and with that acquired knowledge, I also view the vascular (heart-stroke etc) trials on very sick patients very differently. In my view, these patients health condition have deteriorated so drastically also due to the "feeding with statins, ACE- beta blockers and the worst of them all- blood thinners like plavix and wafarin interrupting the Vitamin K cycle.
The core reason of these issues, I see in insulin resistance and diabetes. And believe now that cell therapy can only provide temporary relief, not a cure- that can be done differently. For that reason also- my interest in tickers like ATHX and MSB are virtually also gone. The other ones I will have a look at again- but yes valuation is an issue to me with Avita, as I recall.

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Some deliberations about PSTV 17 Jan 2020 08:32 #13415

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Hedge, valuation isn't cheap on RCEL but if you read my latest article, in addition to their own pipeline, Japan approval in multiple indications, should be coming in the short term through a partner. The company is also shooting for a cosmetic/skin rejuvenation partnership in 1st half of 2020 which would be big. Unlike Cytori and Athersys, RCEL has been solid on delivering on promises and timelines. I guess it helps to have an FDA approved therapy that works and has many applications.

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Some deliberations about PSTV 17 Jan 2020 09:47 #13416

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Wall Street Titan wrote: Hedge, valuation isn't cheap on RCEL but if you read my latest article, in addition to their own pipeline, Japan approval in multiple indications, should be coming in the short term through a partner. The company is also shooting for a cosmetic/skin rejuvenation partnership in 1st half of 2020 which would be big. Unlike Cytori and Athersys, RCEL has been solid on delivering on promises and timelines. I guess it helps to have an FDA approved therapy that works and has many applications.


Just curious, since you are apparently putting ATHX in the same non-deliverance category as CYTX, have you completely given-up on ATHX as a worthy investment?

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Some deliberations about PSTV 18 Jan 2020 11:36 #13418

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Just because Im unhappy with the extended timeline and lack of partnership, dies not mean I've given up. Still long and optimistic 1 year out. Do your own DD.

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